There are certain words you don’t want to hear in a medical checkup, or in an investment bank’s recession outlook: “stable but elevated.” It’s a phrase that could refer to blood pressure, even risk of ...

The probability that the National Bureau of Economic Research will someday determine a national recession began in the U.S. between December 2025 and December 2026 has fallen below twenty percent.

After pausing for nine months, the U.S. Federal Reserve resumed cutting interest rates on 17 September 2025. The recession forecasting method we've used to monitor the odds of a recession starting in ...